"Not all recessions are nearly as bruising as a financial crisis or a global pandemic," House said.įriday's report shows fewer people were working or looking for work in July, after a substantial drop in the labor force the month before. Even if the Fed's efforts to curb inflation do lead to a recession, as many forecasters expect, it's likely to be much milder than the last two economic downturns, in 2007. House predicts that job growth will continue to slow this year as interest rates climb and consumer spending softens. "But it's still trailing in comparison to inflation and it's making the Fed's inflation problem very difficult to control and bring down." Not all recessions are created equal "Wage gains and benefit growth is great for households," House said. Private sector wages jumped a whopping 5.7 percent for the twelve months ending in June, while employers' cost for benefits rose 5.3 percent. The central bank would actually welcome some cooling in the job market, since red-hot wage growth has the potential to fuel inflation. "We know that the path has clearly narrowed." "We think that there's a path for us to be able to bring inflation down while sustaining a strong labor market," Powell said.
But they hope to do so without triggering a recession or widespread job loss. Powell and his colleagues at the central bank are deliberately trying to slow the economy by raising interest rates in an effort to curb inflation. Santiago/Getty Images The Fed faces a challenging task "If you think about what a recession really is, it's a broad-based decline across many industries that's sustained for more than a couple of months," Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week. That's often a sign of recession, but many observers find that hard to reconcile with an economy that's added more than 3 million jobs this year. economy shrinking during the first six months of the year. The strength of the job market is in contrast with other economic indicators, which show the U.S. "I really do believe this is going to be a tight labor market for a long time." "I think what we're seeing is the soft landing that a lot of folks are hoping for," said Dave Gilbertson, vice president at UKG, which tracks the working hours of some four million hourly employees. Still, there's no sign of widespread layoffs or a sharp jump in unemployment, although some companies like trading app Robinhood have recently announced job cuts. Separate reports from the Labor Department this week showed the number of unfilled job openings has declined slightly, while the number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits is inching up. This can happen if you used Marketplace in a way that violates its policies or standards.Support MPR News Today Heart No signs of widespread job cuts
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